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It happened.
The AFC West just became, perhaps, the most entertaining division in NFL history. This is no hyperbole. Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos, creating a division that will have 3 potential hall of fame quarterbacks (the jury is still out on Herbert, but he is well on his way). With this trade, Derek Carr becomes the worst QB in the division, despite being a well above average player and one of the very best leaders in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs remain the team to beat in AFC, and likely, the NFL, as they’ve been the most consistently dominant team in the league over the last 4 years. The Raiders are coming off an improbable playoff berth and are looking to build off that momentum. The Chargers are a team that many will consider a super bowl contender, despite missing the playoffs again last year. Their young core and huge amount of cap space will set them up nicely. And the Broncos look to retain most of a defense that was one of the best in the league to pair with and offense littered with young talent, and now a hall of fame quarterback.
The story lines among this division are endless. But this article is not intended to dive into those story lines, it is rather here to explore what the expectations are for each team in the new league year. While the Chiefs would be the obvious choice to win the division, yet again, the greatly improved Broncos and the promising Chargers have much easier schedules to help them. How much of a difference do these schedules make, and who will be crowned the champion of the wild, wild West? Let’s take a look at each team’s schedules and team expectations.
Broncos
The Broncos offense will be scary for the first time in years, after acquiring Russell Wilson. Additionally, the defense has been a consistent strength with solid pieces that include Pat Surtain, Justin Simmons, and Ronald Darby. The defense still needs to improve at edge rusher and middle linebacker. However, with a better offense, there shouldn’t be as much pressure on the defense to carry the team. The team also includes Brandon McManus (one of the best kickers) and Sam Martin (a mid-tier punter; he’s not a strength, but also not a weakness).
With that roster, I’d expect the team to sweep the Raiders and get at least a win a piece against the Chiefs and Chargers. However, with an inexperienced coaching staff and a QB who has never played with his new weapons, I’ll dock the team another win within the division. We’ll call them 3-3 there.
Outside the division is where I expect the Broncos to make up ground on the rest of the division. Their schedule includes the NFC West. The Broncos should be able to win 2-3 wins against them. Given the home field advantage that exists with the Broncos, I’ll say they defeat the 49ers and Cardinals at Mile High Stadium. I’ll also give the Broncos the advantage over the (now) QB-less Seahawks, despite the game being in Seattle. Lastly, in the NFC West, the Rams get the win over Denver in LA. 3-1 against a division as strong as the NFC West is very impressive, but well within reach for the Broncos. The final game Denver plays against the NFC, is on the road against Carolina. I’ll call this a win, assuming that the Panthers don’t make a huge splash in free agency.
The remaining games on the schedule include the Ravens, Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Titans, and Jets. I’ll call the Texans, Colts, and Jets Denver wins for now. The Titans and Ravens games should be good ones. I’ll give the Ravens the bump over Denver because of the coaching experience differential that exists between the two teams. However, I believe that the Broncos should beat the Titans because the QB differential that exists between the two teams.
Totaling these games up, the Broncos go 11-6 overall. Congrats Denver. You just had your first winning season since winning the super bowl. A realistic range for the Broncos record is between 10-7 and 13-4. If the Broncos win 11+ games, they should be well within the race for the division crown, as we’ll see the schedule doesn’t get any easier for the rest of the AFC West.
Chargers
The Chargers are an interesting team in the AFC West race. They have yet to prove themselves but remain a team with high expectations. I would suspect most fans and the team found it disappointing that they missed the playoffs in 2021. Maybe the expectations should have been lower with a first-year head coach and a second year QB, but there shouldn’t be any excuses this year. With an exorbitant amount of cap-space and a more experienced roster, the Chargers have their eyes on the Super Bowl.
I’d expect the Chargers to win between 3 and 5 games within the division. I’ll split the difference with a 4-2 record. Against the NFC West, their “home” opponents are the Rams and Seahawks. Given that Sofi Stadium is also home to the Rams, and they’re the defending champs, I’ll count that as a loss for the Chargers. Seattle is a team that appears to be tanking this year, so LA gets that win. On the road, the Cardinals and 49ers will be tough opponents, but the Chargers get at least 1 win against the two. So, I’ll call the Chargers 2-2 against the NFC West.
With 4 losses, before I’ve looked outside of the two West divisions, Chargers fans can’t be too happy. However, this will continue to be a theme, as these are arguably the two strongest divisions in football.
The remaining team in the NFC the Chargers will face is the Atlanta Falcons. I’ll chalk that up for an LA win. The remaining schedule consists of the Colts, Texans, Jaguars, Titans, Browns, and Dolphins. Among these teams, I’d expect the Chargers to win between 3 and 6 games. There is so much unknown still, which makes it particularly hard to predict. For now, I’ll call it 5 wins (although the Chargers seem to always lose 1 game a year that should have been an easy win).
Totaling the games up, my way-too-early prediction for the Chargers is a 12-5 record. This should put the Chargers in the playoff hunt. It’s also a very impressive record with their schedule. This puts the Chargers just a notch above the Broncos, with 1 more win.
Chiefs
At surface level, the Chiefs should be the division favorites (maybe even the Super Bowl favorites). With their difficult schedule, however, they will be greatly challenged in the regular season, and finish with a record you wouldn’t expect from the Super Bowl favorites. However, come playoff time, they’ll be battle tested and ready to go.
Starting in the AFC West, for now, I would expect the Chiefs to lose 2 games (1 to the Chargers, and on the road against the Broncos). I have a difficult time seeing them with a record other than 4-2 within the division. Mile High Stadium is such a strong home field advantage, and now home to a team with a QB capable of winning big games, that the Broncos should be able to steal that one. The Chargers are also a strong enough team to steal one, and it could even be in Arrowhead Stadium.
Against the NFC West, their home games are against the Rams and Seahawks. Even though the Rams will be tough, that’s a game I’d expect to go KC’s way, especially if it is a late season game. The Seahawks will be an easy win. This leaves the Chiefs playing on the road against Arizona and San Francisco. Although KC is a better team than both, the 49ers could play spoiler. It’s difficult to pick games for teams as strong as KC, because they’ll be the favorites in most games they play; however, a couple upsets should be expected. So, it’s all about picking which games have the most upset potential. Kyle Shannahan is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and I believe in his ability to scheme up a game plan that could challenge the Chiefs. I’ll call this a 49ers win.
Their final game against the NFC is a Super Bowl 55 rematch in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The Chiefs will be playing for revenge. Expect a lop-sided affair, KC’s way, even though Tampa Bay still has a lot of talent.
The Chiefs remaining schedule in 2022 consists of the Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Bengals, and Bills. Much in the same way I expect KC to get revenge on Tampa Bay, the Bills will get revenge in Arrowhead Stadium. The Bengals will be a difficult game in Cincinnati, and with how much cap space they have, the Bengals should be even better
than last year. With these games, the Chiefs should go 4-2.
On the season, anywhere from 11-6 to 14-3 can be expected from the Chiefs. In this prediction, they go 12-5. With this record, the Chargers and Chiefs tie for the division title (spoiler, the Raiders don’t get to 12-5). They split their 2 games and have the same divisional record. Therefore, the Chiefs get the tiebreaker, because of their record in common games. Congrats KC, you’ve left the remainder of the division clinching their fists again.
Raiders
The magical (and strange) run for the Raiders in 2021, won’t happen again in the upcoming season. The Raiders played too well to give themselves a chance at the division this year because they now have the 2nd toughest schedule in the West (although I’m sure they’re just fine with it, given they went to the playoffs). I would suggest to any Raiders fans reading this, that they stop here. The record I come up with for them, is not reflective of the actual talent they have on the team. Their schedule just isn’t favorable for them. I’m not worth your anger.
In the AFC West, I will give LV 1 win. It’s hard to say who they’ll beat, but in this prediction, I have it coming against the Broncos in a Josh McDaniels revenge game.
In the NFC West, the Raiders have a true shot against the Seahawks (this should be an easy win) and the Cardinals. If LV can catch Arizona late in the season, I think they win this one, but early in the season, they lose. In an effort to be nice to the Raiders, I’ll pretend this is a late season game and have the Raiders go 2-2 against the NFC West. Their remaining NFC game is on the road against the Saints. This should be a Raiders win.
The remaining schedule for LV includes the Titans and Patriots (which will both be losses), the Texans, Jaguars, Colts (which will be wins – Colts could be an upset loss though) and the Steelers. The Steelers are interesting. If they have at least a middle tier QB, I’d expect them to win this game. However, as of now, they don’t even have that, so I must give this game to the Raiders.
7-10 is not a record any Raiders fan would be happy with. The Raiders are a much better team than that, but they have a brutal schedule. Finishing in last place this upcoming season, and not having to face the entire NFC West the following season should help their chances in the future, though.
To conclude, the final division standings are: 1st: Chiefs (12-5)
2nd: Chargers (12-5)
3rd: Broncos (11-6)
4th: Raiders (7-10)
With these records, the top 3 teams should all make the playoffs, but none of them would be expected to be the #1 seed. This can be misleading though. The top 2 teams having only a 12-5 record is reflective of how difficult this division actually is.
Any of the three playoff teams could be serious sleepers come playoff time. The records will show much worse than the teams are. Look out for them because they’re all Super Bowl Contenders.